摘要
广东省积极尝试应用市场化机制实现碳减排，目前电力、水泥、钢铁、石化四部门已纳入碳排放权交易。按照《广东碳交易管理办法》，未来要将纺织、造纸、陶瓷、有色、化工五大工业纳入到碳排放管理体系。研究应用多区域动态CGE模型对广东省工业行业开展量化预测分析，模型结果表明：2020年广东省九大工业部门碳交易总量宜控制在3．71亿吨（不包括电力重复计算）。对工业部门碳减排贡献最大的措施是工业行业的能效提高及技术进步，九部门的减排贡献由大到小分别为：电力、水泥、石化、钢铁、化工、造纸、有色、纺织、陶瓷。实施碳减排将对GDP带来影响，其中全部门责任分担（S1）情景对GDP损失影响最大，约为1．27％，而其他三个政策情景（S2～S4）对GDP损失影响较小，均低于1％。
Guangdong actively tries to apply the market mechanism to achieve carbon emissions reduction. The current four sectors including power, cement, steel, and petrochemicals have been included in the carbon emissions trading. In accordance with the Guangdong carbon tradings and managements approach, the future of the Textile, Paper, Ceramics, Nonferrous Metals, and Chemical Industry, the five major industrial will attend carbon emissions trading system. In this study, the CGE model is applied to quantitative analysis of the industry in Guangdong. The results show that the total carbon trading volume of the nine industrial sectors in Guangdong Province in 2020 should be controlled at 3.71 tons （not including the calculation of the electric power）. The largest contribution to the industrial sector carbon emissions reduction is the industry＇s energy efficiency and technological progress, the contribution of the nine sectors of emission reduction are： Electric power, Cement, Petrochemical, Steel, Chemical, Paper, Nonferrous metals, Textiles, and Ceramics. The implementation of carbon emission reduction will have an impact on the GDP, and all of the responsibilities sharing （SO scenarios have the greatest impact on GDP, about 1.27%, while the other three policy scenarios （S2-S4） have little effect on GDP, which is less than 1%.
出处
《生态经济》
CSSCI
北大核心
2016年第7期69-73,共5页
Ecological Economy
基金
广东省软科学研究计划项目(2015A070704038)
中国科学院所长创新培育基金(y407pc1001)
关键词
CGE
广东
九部门
碳交易
CGE
Guangdong
nine sector
carbon trading
