摘要
为防止深水井喷失控事故,综合考虑人因和设备风险因素,采用贝叶斯-GO法分析深水关井作业可靠性。根据深水关井作业可靠性操作路径建立GO图;按照映射规则,将GO图转换成对应的贝叶斯网络;根据贝叶斯法的前向和后向推理计算规则,得出深水关井作业在不同工况下的成功概率及薄弱风险点。结果表明,多因素影响下的深水关井作业成功概率有所降低,溢流险情的发现时间及防喷器(BOP)控制系统的可靠性对关井作业影响较大。
In order to prevent deep-water blowout accidents, considering human errors and equipment failures, reliability analysis of deep-water shut-in operation was analyzed based on Bayesian-GO approach. According to reliability block diagram of deepwater shut-in operation, GO chart of deep-water shut-in operation was built. According to the mapping rules, GO chart was converted into Bayesian network. Successful probability of deep-water shut-in operation under different conditions and weak risk points were got separately using forward inference and backward inference of Bayesian. The result demonstrates that successful probability of deep-water shut-in operation considering multiple factors will be reduced appropriately, and that early detection of overflow and reliability of blowout preventer（BOP） control systems are crucial for successful deep-water shut-in operation.
出处
《中国安全科学学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2016年第4期144-149,共6页
China Safety Science Journal
关键词
深水关井作业
应急封井
GO图
贝叶斯网络
后验推理
可靠性分析
deep-water shut-in operation
emergency shut-off
GO chart
Bayesian network
posterior reasoning
reliability analysis
