摘要
基于江苏省1984—2013年样本数据,运用向量自回归(VAR)的实证方法,分别对江苏苏南、苏中、苏北三大区域的农民收入和信息消费的双向影响关系进行了考察并加以区域间的比较分析。在构建VAR模型的基础上,使用广义脉冲响应函数和方差分解对江苏三大区域农民收入和信息消费之间的动态影响关系进行实证检验。结果表明,江苏省农民收入和信息消费存在较强的相互促进的作用机制,并且这种正向影响在短期内较为显著。江苏三大区域中,苏中地区农民的信息消费对收入的敏感程度最高,收入增长对信息消费发展的刺激拉动作用最大;苏北和苏中地区的信息消费对收入的促进作用较为显著,苏南地区的影响程度相对较小。据此,应有针对性地建立长期有效的江苏省农民收入和信息消费的激励机制,以促进两者的长期稳定协调增长。
Based on Jiangsu Yearbook data from 1984 to 2013,this paper used the vector auto regression（ VAR） model to explore and compare the interactive relations and regional differences between the information consumption and per capita income of rural residents in three regions of Jiangsu Province. Constructing a VAR model for information consumption and per capita income and estimating the parameters,we found that there was an interactive mechanism between the per capita income of rural residents in Jiangsu Province and their information consumption,and that the positive effect was most obvious in a short term. In the three regions,the impact of previous per capita income on the current information consumption was the largest in the central region where the income increase exerted a most effective drive for the development of the information consumption; the information consumption in the northern and central regions had a most significant driving effect on the income increase,while in the southern region the effect was relatively lower. Accordingly,we suggest building a long- term effective incentive mechanism to promote a long-term stable and harmonious growth of both the income and the information consumption of the rural residents in Jiangsu Province.
出处
《南京邮电大学学报（社会科学版）》
2016年第2期63-72,共10页
Journal of Nanjing University of Posts and Telecommunications(Social Science Edition)
基金
国家社会科学基金青年项目"城市化背景下我国城乡居民信息消费研究"(14CTQ019)
江苏省社会科学基金项目"农民移动信息服务使用行为协同演进研究"(14TQB004)
江苏省社科研究重点课题"江苏信息消费推动产业升级战略研究"(13SQA-028)
江苏高校哲学社会科学研究基金项目"基于异质性的农民移动信息服务使用行为的协同演化研究"(2014SJB007)
关键词
信息消费
消费需求
农民收入
区域差异
information consumption
consumer demand
rural residents＇ income
regional differences
