摘要
针对溃坝造成大坝下游居民生命损失的问题,考虑溃坝洪水的发生过程,将溃坝前风险人口撤离率、溃坝后未撤离人口避难率、未避难人口死亡率及其他相关影响因素确定的修正系数这四项重要指标引入到溃坝生命损失估算过程中。根据我国已溃水库的相关资料,借鉴已有研究成果,着重分析了警报时间与撤离率、溃坝洪水严重性与避难率的关系曲线,并用模糊综合评价法确定生命损失的修正系数,最终得到系统的溃坝生命损失估算模型与方法。将该模型与方法应用于已溃大坝生命损失估算中,生命损失的平均相对误差绝对值为10.6%,通过与其他估算方法对比发现,该方法的计算结果更接近实际损失值。研究成果可为溃坝生命损失估算提供参考。
In view of life loss of the residents downstream dams due to dam failure,in consideration of flood process,hazardous population excavation ratio before dam-failure,remaining population sheltered ratio after dam-failure,unsheltered population death ratio and correction factor describing other relevant causes are introduced into dam-failure life loss estimation.Based on existing dam-failure cases in China,with other domestic and overseas studies for reference,selective analysis are carried out on relation curve of alarm period and excavation ratio,and that of flood severity and sheltered ratio.Correction factor for life loss estimation is determined with the application of fuzzy synthetic evaluation method.Systematic life loss estimation model and methods are hereby obtained.By introducing the model and methods in existing dam-failure cases,average relative error of the result is 10.6%.Compared with other method,the estimation result accords with the observed value.The study result may provide reference for dam-failure life loss estimation.
出处
《水电能源科学》
北大核心
2016年第5期69-72,共4页
Water Resources and Power
基金
国家"十二五"科技支撑计划项目(2013BAB06B01)
关键词
过程机理
溃坝生命损失估算模型
溃坝生命损失值
修正系数
process mechanism
dam-failure life loss estimation model
dam-failure life loss value
correction factor
