摘要
溃坝后果评价是计算大坝风险的核心内容之一,溃坝损失后果评估是否准确直接关系到大坝风险度的大小。溃坝后果评价是一件复杂繁琐且系统性工作,需要将生命损失、经济损失、环境影响和社会影响等4个方面的评估结果进行综合。随着数学理论发展,线性加权综合评价、模糊数学综合评价、物元综合评价、灰色关联度综合评价、主成分分析综合评价等成为常见综合评价模型。而每种模型方法各有特点,实际适用性效果各异。就常见的5种综合评价模型,以江西省5座水库溃坝后果评价为例,对5种评价模型计算特性和结果进行了比较分析,获得了每种方法使用技术要点,并得出在对多座水库的溃坝后果严重程度评估排序时,线性加权综合评价模型应用效果最为可靠,其次推荐采用物元综合评价模型的结论。
Dam failure consequence assessment is one of the core elements in the calculation of dam risk,and the accuracy of dam failure consequence assessment is directly related to the degree of dam risk.Dam-break consequence assessment is a complex and systematic work,which needs to carry out four aspects of assessment,including life loss,economic loss,environmental impact and social impact,and the four aspects of assessment results are synthesized to get the comprehensive assessment results.With the development of mathematical theory,the linear weighted comprehensive evaluation,fuzzy mathematics comprehensive evaluation,matter-element comprehensive evaluation,grey correlation degree comprehensive evaluation and principal component analysis comprehensive evaluation have become common comprehensive evaluation models.Each model method has its own characteristics,and the actual applicability and effects are different.Taking five reservoirs in Jiangxi Province as the study cases,above five evaluation models are applied to evaluate the dam-break consequences respectively,and the characteristics and calculation results of the five evaluation models are compared and analyzed.It is concluded that when evaluating and ranking the severity of dam-break consequences for multiple reservoirs,the linear weighted comprehensive evaluation method is preferred,followed by the matter-element comprehensive evaluation method.
作者
孙玮玮
彭雪辉
龙智飞
蔡荨
李雷
SUN Weiwei;PENG Xuehui;LONG Zhifei;CAI Qian;LI Lei(Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute,Nanjing 210029,Jiangsu,China;Dam Safety Management Center of the Ministry of Water Resources,Nanjing 210029,Jiangsu,China)
出处
《水力发电》
CAS
2022年第1期70-76,共7页
Water Power
基金
南京水利科学研究院基金项目(Y720009,Y719010)
国家重点研发计划课题(2018YFC0407104,2018YFC0407106)。
关键词
溃坝后果
评价模型
程度排序
特性分析
适用性
dam-break consequence
evaluation model
severity ranking
characteristics analysis
applicability
