摘要
基于本底趋势线理论,本文通过收集入境与国内旅游相关数据分析入境与国内旅游发展的非同步性,发现入境旅游与国内旅游存在多个时间长度不同的波动周期,入境旅游基于旅游收入指标和旅游人次指标的分析结果有所不同,国内旅游基于旅游收入指标和旅游人次指标的分析结果基本一致;按照经济学有关波动周期的划分方法,国内旅游发展存在朱格拉周期、基钦周期、库兹涅茨周期3种周期,入境旅游存在朱格拉周期、基钦周期、库兹涅茨周期、体制释放周期4种周期;入境旅游和国内旅游在不同的波动周期阶段对我国旅游业的带动作用强弱不同,两者发展既有联系也有区别,两者呈对称式发展,互为补充,相互促进,可在一定程度上减少我国旅游业发展的周期波动幅度。
Based on the Theory of Natural Trend Curve,this paper collects dates relevant to inbound and domestic tourism to analyze the non- synchronization of inbound and domestic tourism development. Results show that there are a number of different fluctuant cycles in the development of inbound and domestic tourism,the results of the analysis between the tourism income and tourist arrivals about inbound tourism are different,but the results in domestic tourism are basically identical; according to the classification of economic cycle,there are three cycles which are Juglar Cycle,Kitchin Cycle,Kuznets Cycle in the development of domestic tourism; the development of inbound tourism have four cycles which are Juglar Cycle,Kitchin Cycle,Kuznets Cycle and System Release Cycle; inbound tourism and domestic tourism have different driving effects on tourism industry in different phases of the fluctuant cycles,which have connections and differences. They are symmetric,complementary in the development,and can reduce periodic fluctuation of our country＇s tourism development to a certain extent.
出处
《商业研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2016年第5期171-178,共8页
Commercial Research
基金
国家社会科学基金项目
项目编号:12BJY131
国家自然科学基金项目
项目编号:41501156
湖南省教育厅优秀青年基金项目
项目编号:15B243
湖南省社会科学基金项目
项目编号:14JD56
关键词
本底趋势线
入境旅游
国内旅游
周期分析
非同步性
natural trend curve
inbound tourism
domestic tourism
cycle analysis
non-synchronization
