摘要
为科学地确定航空公司不安全事件的处罚机制,推动民航的国家安全监督,从航空公司与监管部门之间的博弈机理出发,构建了航空公司不安全事件处罚的演化博弈模型。采用系统动力学方法仿真分析模型的演化趋势。仿真结果显示,当采用静态的混合策略时,模型模拟的曲线不稳定呈现围绕中心振荡的波动性;采用与违规收益变动相适应的动态处罚策略可以有效抑制波动性,增加航空公司按章办事的概率;加大处罚力度可以有效地控制航空公司的违章概率,但处罚力度应适宜,防止监管部门过于信任高处罚力度的作用而放松监管;加大奖励额度,增加监管次数,可以明显地提高航空公司按章办事的比例。监管部门应建立与奖励相结合的问责制度,同时通过技术创新、加强内部运行控制等方法提高监管频率。
The article is aimed at introducing its study results of the application of the punishment mechanism to the evolutionary game of the airline hazard events based on SD. As is known,punishment is an indispensible part for successful business management,so is it in the disposal of unsafe events in civil aviation.For the purpose of promoting the comprehensive safety management of the national civil aviation,we have built up an evolutionary game model of the airline unsafe events punishment based on our study of the game mechanism of the airline management and the regulations needed,in which a series of game variables involved are to be defined and stipulated for the given purpose,for example,the game revenue（ payment） function between the airline and the regulatory authorities. What is more,there exists manifold equilibrium of the game model,though we fail to determine whether there exists any stable equilibrium over such evolutionary imbalances,which can only be worked out via mathematical derivation process. In addition,it is also necessary to apply the system dynamics to simulate the evolutionary trends of the dynamic model and build up a stable equilibrium of the game evolution. To solve the aforementioned relationship between the variables and formulas,we have worked out the formulas and the related variables of the SD model based on the previous game analysis. The simulation results of ours show that the curve simulated from the model tends to be unstable from the point of view of the static hybrid strategy. And,since the dynamic punishment strategy is fit for the illegal earnings to some extent,it is necessary to work out the volatility and increase the probability of the rulebased airlines,for it is reasonable to increase penalties and control and try to limit the illegal airline events to the minimum effectively through necessary the punishment. Otherwise,the regulators＇ deregulation might result in more unsafe events of airline operation due to over-reliance on punishment. On the other hand,praise and
出处
《安全与环境学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2016年第2期169-173,共5页
Journal of Safety and Environment
基金
2014年民航科技项目计划专项(MHRD20140316)
