摘要
本文利用1997—2014年我国31个省市（自治区）的面板数据，采用ArcGIS技术对我国保险业发展水平进行了空间格局分析，同时将Dagum基尼系数及其分解方法与非参数估计方法相结合，对我国保险业发展水平的地区差距及其分布动态演进过程进行了实证研究。得到如下结论：（1）Dagum基尼系数及其分解结果表明，我国保险业发展水平的总体差距在样本考察期内呈现下降趋势，超变密度和地区间差距是我国保险业发展水平总体差距的主要来源。（2）Kernel密度估计表明，在样本考察期内，我国保险业整体发展水平在不断提高，有部分省份保险业发展速度较快，但部分省份保险业发展速度相对较慢，两者之间形成了较大的差距，并且伴随着极化现象的发生。（3）Markov链分析表明，不同保险业发展水平状态的组间流动性较低。从总体上来看，我国保险业发展水平表现为上升趋势，低水平保险业省份将逐步减少，总体向着中等以上水平发展。
In this paper,we drew on the panel data from China＇ s 31 provinces during 1997 to 2014 ,using ArcGIS technology to analyze the level of development of China＇ s insurance industry. At the same time, combined with Dagum Gini coefficient and its decomposition method and the non-parametric estimation method, the paper made an empirical study on the regional difference and distribution dynamic evolution of China＇ s insurance industry. The conclusions reached are as follows ： （ 1 ） Dagum Gini coefficient and decomposition results show a downward trend for the regional difference of China＇ s insurance industry, and the intensity of transvariation and inter-regional difference is the major source of the regional difference. （2）The Kernel density estimates suggest that during the review period, the level of development of the insurance industry as a whole has been improving. Some provinces are developing faster, but some provinces are slower. The gap between them are getting wider accompanied by a polarization phe- nomenon. （3） The Markov Chain analysis shows that there is a low liquidity between the different levels of development of the insurance industry. In a word, the level of development of China＇ s insurance industry shows a trend of improvement, the number of provinces with a low level of development are getter fewer, moving upwards to the intermediate or high level of developmet.
出处
《保险研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2016年第3期3-17,共15页
Insurance Studies
基金
教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地项目"中国土地制度改革与农业现代化道路研究"(12JJD790046)的资助
