摘要
在全国新生人口不断减少的背景下,北京新生人口在2005—2010年却出现了跳跃式增长,常住人口数量、育龄妇女规模和总和生育率的变化均不能有效解释这一现象。本文采用分年龄结构的育龄妇女生育动态数据,基于APC模型对新生人口激增背后的生育率结构性变化进行了研究。研究发现,育龄妇女生育高峰年龄滞后、高龄妇女生育率提高使得生育率发生结构性变化,是北京新生人口激增的根本原因。APC模型估计结果显示,1970年前后出生的育龄妇女生育意愿最高,并处于生理生育高峰,对新生人口增长贡献最大。
There was a surge of births which happened in 2005 to 2010 in Beijing when the births of China kept declining, which could not be explained by the volatility of population, women of child-bearing age or fertility rate. Using the dynamic data of fertility of women in different age, the structural change of fertility has been researched based on APC model in this thesis. It is found that the lagged peak of childbearing age and higher fertility rate in older childbearing women, which are the sources of structural changes in fertility rate, has brought the surge of births in Beijing. The estimation results of APC model show that the women with highest fertility desire and at the peak of childbearing age, who were born before and after 1970, have caused the surge in births.
出处
《统计研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2016年第3期106-112,共7页
Statistical Research
基金
北京市自然科学基金项目"基于APC模型的北京市人口膨胀与资源压力模型研究"(9142015)
国家自然科学基金"基于环境规制的污染密集型产业国际转移理论与实证研究"(71473038)资助
