摘要
以1960—2014年关中—天水经济区所辖七市一区气象站点逐日气温和降水量实测值为基础,利用Thornthwaite Memorial模型表征气候变化对农业生产造成的影响,综合运用气候倾向率、Morlet小波函数、MannKendall非参数检验法、Yamamoto分析、IDW空间插值对其时空变化特征进行诊断分析.结果表明:关天经济区近55年来,平均气候生产潜力为1 053.8 kg/(hm^2·a),呈逐年增加趋势,并于20世纪90年代发生弱突变.周期变化呈现大小尺度相互嵌套,与研究区降水周期变化基本一致.空间分布区域差异性明显,表现为南部高于中部、东部高于西部.降水是制约经济区农业发展的主导因素,增温和增湿均有利于区域农业生产,但增湿效应更为显著,此外,研究区气候暖湿化的趋势是促进农业发展的重要原因.
Based on meteorological observation data sets in Guanzhong-Tianshui economic region during 1960-2014, the temporal and mutation characteristics of climatic potential productivity were analyzed by using the Thornthwaite Memorial model, general linear regression analysis, Morlet wavelet analysis, Mann-Kendall method and IDW spatial interpolation. The results show that generally, in recent 55 years the average climatic potential productivity was 1 053.8 kg/（hm2＂ a） and has a tendency to increase. The mutation of climatic potential productivity in the 1990＇ s was relatively weak, as well as showed periodic change trend of each nested size dimension, consistent with the precipitation change cycle. The spatial distribution indicates that it was high in south and east areas compared with the ponding middle and west area. Precipitation is the dominant factor affecting the development of climatic potential productivity. Wanning and humidifying are beneficial to the increase of the climatic potential productivity, whereas the humidifying increase is more significant. In addition, the warmer and wetter climatic changing is the important reason for the climatic potential productivity increase.
出处
《河南科学》
2016年第4期521-529,共9页
Henan Science
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(41071359)
陕西省灾害监测与机理模拟重点实验室项目(15JS009)
