摘要
城市范围内的埋地管线,具有相似的结构属性参数,面临空间相关的地震动荷载,管线结构地震破坏失效存在相关性。提出一种考虑管线失效相关性的埋设管网地震连通可靠性随机模拟方法,以空间距离表示管线位置处地震动参数的相关系数,采用经验震害公式求解管线地震破坏概率,通过联合分布与边缘分布的关系得到管线结构失效事件的相关系数。将管线结构地震破坏事件视为相关随机变量,采用正交变换方法将相关随机变量转变为独立随机变量,进行Monte Carlo随机模拟求解管网"源-汇"点连通事件的概率。通过设定地震作用下典型算例的连通可靠性求解,验证了方法的正确性,并比较了管线失效相关性对管网地震可靠性分析结果的影响。
Within the scope of urban lifeline service area,the seismic failure of buried pipelines is dependent on each other in pipeline network system,which is caused by similar structural parameters of buried pipelines with same materials and spatial correlation of ground motion intensities.This paper describes a novel stochastic simulation strategy of buried pipeline network seismic reliability considering correlated failure of pipelines.The spatial correlations of ground motions at different sites are expressed by the correlation coefficient between residuals of attenuation relation of PGVS.The failure probabilities of pipeline segments,affected by spatial correlated ground motions,are calculated by Poisson distribution formula using the mean occurrence rate model.According to the relationship between the joint distribution and marginal distribution,correlated coefficients of pipeline failure events are deduced then.In the Monte Carlo simulation model for calculating pipeline network reliability,the seismic failure events of pipelines are taken as dependent random variables firstly,the dependent random variables are transformed into independent random variables by orthogonal transformation then.The validity of the proposed model is verified by pipeline network case study affected by scenario earthquakes.The influence of pipeline failure dependency on network reliability is also analyzed.
出处
《防灾减灾工程学报》
CSCD
北大核心
2016年第1期84-91,共8页
Journal of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation Engineering
基金
中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务专项(DQJB14C03)
国家自然科学基金项目(51208108
51508528)资助
