摘要
目的通过分析山东省托幼机构手足口病暴发疫情的流行特征,探索手足口病防控的策略,为托幼机构手足口病预防控制提供科学依据。方法采用描述性流行病学方法,对山东省2009~2013年手足口病暴发疫情进行描述性统计分析。结果 303起托幼机构手足口病暴发疫情发病中位数为15例,平均罹患率、持续时间、发病报告时间间隔分别为9.03%、15d、1.61d。303起手足口病疫情第1~7天日均发病数最多,均大于1例,发病第4天累计发病数超过5例,6d内疫情发病数为9.10例,第7天后日均发病数下降到1以下,在第13天（大约3个潜伏期）后发病例数为2.67例（占全部发病数的19.70%）,第15天累计报告发病数超过90%,平均累计报告病例15.08例。如果在手足口病疫情报告后第一时间采取控制措施,控制措施会对一个平均潜伏期（4d）后的病例起作用,即单起暴发疫情平均发病数16.70例与6天内疫情发病数（9.10例）之差,可以计算出可控制发病人数为16.70-9.10=7.60例,即45.51%（7.60/16.70）的病例为可能控制病例。结论暴发疫情发病数在经历3个潜伏期（2周左右）后,大幅减少。在现有的防控策略下,托幼机构发现手足口病病例后第一时间采取防控措施,可以减缓手足口病暴发疫情的传播力。
Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of hand,foot mouth disease（HFMD）outbreaks in kindergartens,Shandong province,explore the strategies for its control and prevention,so as to provide the scientific basis for its control and prevention. Methods Descriptive epidemiological method was used to analyze the epidemics of HFMD in Shandong province,2009-2013. Results The median of 303 outbreaks was 15 cases,the average incidence rate,duration and time interval was 9.03%,15 and 1.61 days.The average daily Incidence of 303 outbreaks in the 1-7days was more than 1case.On the 4th day,the cumulative incidence was over 5cases,the incidence was 9.10 cases within 6days,the daily incidence dropped to below 1after 7days,after the 13th（approximately three latencies）,the incidence was2.67cases（accounting for 19.70% of the total number）,the reported cumulative incidence was over 90% on the 15 th day,the average cumulative reported cases were 15.08.If HFMD could be reported timely,the control measures would play a role in a mean latency（4d）,it was the difference of the average incidence（16.7）in the single outbreak and 6days（9.10）,the control of the incidence rate was 16.70-9.10=7.60,namely 45.51%（7.60/16.70）cases could be controlled. Conclusion The incidence of the outbreaks is reduced significantly.Under the existing control strategies,if HFMD outbreaks can be found and controlled timely,the spread can be slowed down.
出处
《预防医学论坛》
2016年第2期128-130,共3页
Preventive Medicine Tribune
关键词
手足口病
暴发疫情
防控
效果
Hand foot and mouth disease
Outbreak
Prevention and control
Effect
