摘要
依据史料的灾害记实以及海岸变迁和人工海堤修筑记录,采用文献调研方法,分析历史时期苏北平原潮灾的时空分布格局特征。研究结果表明,总体格局表现为:在新石器时代为弱灾期;汉时为易发期;隋至唐初为多发期;盛唐至宋以易发期为主,并兼有重灾期凸显;黄河夺淮后,又复多发期。据黄河夺淮至清末的历次潮灾记录分析结果显示,在危害程度上,大潮灾占总潮灾年的30%,中小潮灾各占35%。潮灾在发生时间上,存在1-3月的安全期和6-8月的高发期。在空间分布上,潮灾发生概率总体由南向北呈递减趋势。此外,旱期潮灾约占潮灾总数的10%。据现代水文气象和地形等资料讨论可知,年最高潮平均潮位与沿海陆面的高差在总体上由南向北呈递减趋势,台风增水的总体增幅南大北小,以及海面的季节性变化特征为潮灾时空分布格局的主要影响因素。
According to the historical records of tidal disasters, coastal evolution and artificial seawall construction, the literature investigation method is used to analyze the spatiotemporal patterns of the tidal disasters in the North Jiangsu Plain during historical periods. The study results show that the disaster history is combined with frequent occurrence periods and prone periods, meanwhile it is highlighted with the periods of weak and strong disasters. The analysis results based on tidal disaster records from 1 128 to 1 909 show that, in terms of harm degrees, the great tidal disasters account for 30 % of the total number of disasters. The medium and the small tidal disasters account for 35 % respectively. In terms of occurrence times of the tidal disasters, there are the safe periods in January and March and the high occurrence periods in June and August. In terms of spatial distribution of the tidal disasters, the occurrence probabilities of the tidal disasters have decreased from the south to the north of the study area. In addition, the tidal disasters during drought periods account for 10 % of the total. The discussion based on the modern hydrological, meteorological and terrain materials shows that the decreased differences between earth surface elevation and tidal level from the south to the north, the decreased overall amplitudes of storm surge setup from the south to the north, and seasonal variation of sea level are the major impact factors that control the spatiotemporal distribution of the tidal disasters.
出处
《海洋通报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2016年第1期30-37,共8页
Marine Science Bulletin
基金
全球变化研究重大科学研究计划(2010CB951202)
关键词
苏北平原
历史时期
潮灾
风暴增水
海面高度
旱期潮灾
North Jiangsu Plain
historical periods
tidal disasters
storm surge setup
sea level
tidal disasters during drought periods
