摘要
Assessment of coastal vulnerability to future environmental change has been emphasized in coastal nations or regions. The Jiangsu coastal plain, located to the north of the Yangtze River Delta in China, is most vulnerable to sea level rise and exacerbating coastal hazards. This paper develops the method of delimiting vulnerable scope and assessing coastal vulnerability through field observations and sampling and by applying remote sensing and GIS, which are suitable for great river delta and coastal plains with large area, relative complex micro-geomorphology and the protection of seawall. Applying this method, the coastal vulnerability of the Jiangsu coastal plain to relative sea level rise (approximately 50 cm up to the year 2050) and exacerbating storm surges have been assessed. The results show that, up to the year 2050, the Jiangsu coastal plain will probably lose 12.8 % of tidal flats (about 5.8x104 hm2) and 7.9 % of cultivated land (about 7.2x104 hm2). Meanwhile, 2.0 % of population, 3.8 % of original value of fixed assets, 3.2% of GDP (Gross Domestic Product), 40.3 % of salt industry and 5.8 % of aquiculture respectively will be affected due to coastal environmental change.
Assessment of coastal vulnerability to future environmental change has been emphasized in coastal nations or regions. The Jiangsu coastal plain, located to the north of the Yangtze River Delta in China, is most vulnerable to sea level rise and exacerbating coastal hazards. This paper develops the method of delimiting vulnerable scope and assessing coastal vulnerability through field observations and sampling and by applying remote sensing and GIS, which are suitable for great river delta and coastal plains with large area, relative complex micro-geomorphology and the protection of seawall. Applying this method, the coastal vulnerability of the Jiangsu coastal plain to relative sea level rise (approximately 50 cm up to the year 2050) and exacerbating storm surges have been assessed. The results show that, up to the year 2050, the Jiangsu coastal plain will probably lose 12.8 % of tidal flats (about 5.8x104 hm2) and 7.9 % of cultivated land (about 7.2x104 hm2). Meanwhile, 2.0 % of population, 3.8 % of original value of fixed assets, 3.2% of GDP (Gross Domestic Product), 40.3 % of salt industry and 5.8 % of aquiculture respectively will be affected due to coastal environmental change.
基金
National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.49871076
Excellent Doctoral Thesis Foundation of Chinese Academy of Sciences
