摘要
旱涝灾害,每年都会给人类社会造成巨大的损失,并对人类的生存,社会的发展造成严重威胁.本文利用山西省15个气象站点1960年～2014年每个月降水观测资料,采用了SPI指数、Mann-Kendall检验法、线性倾向率、EOF和REOF等方法,并且用Arc GIS软件,对近55年来干旱和洪涝在时间与空间上的演化特点进行了分析.结果表明：（1）总体上,在每个阶段,山西省的旱涝变化表现出阶段性变化的特征：干旱在1960年～1975年,1981年～2001年较为频繁,1976年～1980年没有发生干旱事件,在21世纪以后干旱事件的频率较低.山西省涝灾在20世纪60年代到70年代初期最多.但在70年代中后期到90年代末基本没有发生洪涝事件,并且在21世纪发生洪涝事件发生的频率也比较低.总体来看,旱涝灾害于21世纪后减少.（2）山西省近55年的旱涝灾害总体上向旱的方向发展,SPI12在20世纪60年代波动较大,在其他年代整体上表现为下降趋势.（3）由于旱涝的区域变化不同,山西省被分为3个区域,即：晋北地区,晋中地区,晋南地区,在分析后得知,3个地区与全省的干旱与洪涝趋势表现出大致相同的状况,但是在一些年份3个区域与全省表现出差异.（4）被划分的3个区域的旱涝变率与全省有较一致的变化规律,在20世纪60年代时达到最大,但在21世纪后旱涝变化率整体较小.
Flood and drought. The paper applies standardized precipitation index（ SPI）,Mann-Kendall test,Linear trend rate,EOF and REOF,Arc GIS to explore the spatio-temporal characteristics of flood and drought in Shan xi Province based on the observed monthly Precipitation data of 55 meteorological stations from 1960 to2014. The result shows that：（ 1） overall,The condition of drought and flood disasters shows a stage characteristics; The flood and drought disasters took on a periodically changing characteristic,for example,during the year of 1960 to1975 and the year of 1981 to 2001,the state of drought was frequent. While in the year of 1976 to1980,there was no drought in this period; after the 21 th century,the drought does not take place frequently.The flood disasters mainly took place in the 1960 s to the beginning of the 1970s; and water logging events in the late 1970 s to the late 1990 s did not occur substantially. In the 21 st century water logging events happen relatively low. On the whole,droughts and floods disasters in Shanxi Province in the 21 st century have been reducing.（ 2） In the recent 55 years,there has been a tendency of drought in Shanxi province. SPI12 in the 1960 s was changeable,while in other time,which has been dropping increasingly.（ 3） According to the regional difference of drought and flood features,our province area can be divided into 3 parts： the area of north ＂Jin＂,middle and south in Shanxi; and the tendency of drought and flood in these three parts keep the same pace with other areas in Shanxi,but some show diverse in certain year.（ 4） The changing rate in these three areas kept the same pace with that of the whole province,the rate reached its highest in the 1960 s,while after 21 th century,it became lower in the whole.
出处
《山西师范大学学报（自然科学版）》
2016年第1期109-116,共8页
Journal of Shanxi Normal University(Natural Science Edition)
关键词
SPI
旱涝时空特征
山西省
standardized precipitation index
flood and drought spatiotemporal
Shanxi province
