摘要
随着全球变暖趋势的不断增强,破纪录温度事件(record breaking temperature events,RBTE)发生的频次呈现不断增加的特点.基于已知当前年份的温度记录,未来五年内这个记录被打破的概率是多少?即未来五年内发生新的RBTE的概率是多少?这是目前国内外学术界关注的前沿科学问题之一.文中基于概率统计模型研究在不同情景下RBTE发生概率,并与实际观测资料检测结果作对比分析,研究近50年中国RBTE发生概率的变化与全球增暖的关系.结果显示,RBTE发生概率的大小依赖于温度的增长趋势和相关.文中给出了RBTE与全球增暖的定量关系,加深了全球增暖背景下RBTE发生频次、强度有增加趋势的认识,有利于极端事件的监测、检测和预警业务系统的建设.
The occurrence of record breaking temperature events （RBTE） became more and more frequent under the background of global warming. What is the probability that the current temperature record will be broken in the next five years？ In this study, answers are provided by given a variety of simple statistical models for temperature, and the relationship between the probability of RBTE of China and the global warming is explored by comparative analysis of the probability of RBTE in the last 50 years. The results show that the frequency of RBTE is ixffluenced by global warming and the autocorrelation. This study quantitatively estimates the relationship between the probability of RBTE and global warming, which can deepen our knowledge about the increasing frequency and amplitude of RBTE under the background of global warming.
出处
《物理学报》
SCIE
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2009年第6期4354-4361,共8页
Acta Physica Sinica
基金
国家重点基础研究发展计划(批准号:2006CB400503,2004CB418303)
国家科技支撑计划(批准号:2007BAC03A01)
公益性行业(气象)科研专项(批准号:GYHY200806005)资助的课题~~
关键词
破纪录温度事件
全球增暖
极端事件
record breaking temperature events, global warming, extreme events
