摘要
扩大农村居民消费对改善民生、刺激中国内需、拉动经济增长起着至关重要的作用。基于1985-2013年的年度时间序列数据,通过对数据进行平稳性检验、协整检验、建立VAR模型以及脉冲响应曲线,分析了新型城镇化背景下财政支农支出对农村居民消费的影响。实证结果表明,长期范围内,财政支农支出对农村居民消费有微弱的挤入效应;短期来看,也同样具有挤入效应,但存在一定的时滞。在加入城镇化这一变量后,这种挤入效应会更明显。
Expending the rural residents＇ consumption plays an important role in improving people′s livelihood,stimulating domestic demand and promoting economic growth. Based on annual time series data from 1985 to 2013, then by means of stationary test, co-integration test, VAR model and impulse response function, the influence of fiscal agricultural expenditure on rural residents′ consumption under background of new urbanization was analyzed. The results showed that,the fiscal agricultu ral expenditures have weak crowding-in effect on rural residents′ consumption in the long term,while the former have delayed crowding-in effect on the latter in the short term. Besides, the crowding-in effect would be more obvious when considering the variable of urbanization.
出处
《湖北农业科学》
2016年第4期1073-1078,1083,共7页
Hubei Agricultural Sciences
基金
国家社会科学基金项目(13BJY108)
湖北省农业厅科研项目(2014NK01)
关键词
新型城镇化
财政支农支出
农村居民消费
挤入效应
new urbanization
fiscal agricultural expenditure
rural residents′ consumption
crowding-in effect
