摘要
[目的/意义]"邻避"冲突事件因其潜在负外部效应,容易在网络形成网络舆情,因此研究"邻避"冲突事件网络舆情演化机制,对维护社会公共安全具有重要意义。[方法/过程]本文采用系统动力学方法,从媒体、政府、网民、事件和当地公众舆情主体构建"邻避"冲突事件网络舆情演化模型,并通过Vensim PLE软件验证模型的有效性和分析灵敏度。[结果/结论]以茂名PX为案例进行仿真,结果验证了模型的有效性。通过分析事件易爆程度、政府公信力、信息透明度和环境风险感知对网络舆情热度和当地公众的影响,为控制网络舆情扩散和化解冲突事件提供了建议。
[Purpose / Significance] ＂ NIMBY＂ conflict event can easily form Internet Public Opinion in the network due to potential negative external effects,consequently,research on Internet Public Opinion of ＂ NIMBY＂ conflict event is of great significance to maintain social public security. [Method / process]Based on the method of system dynamics,a model on the evolution of Internet Public Opinion of media,government,netizen,event and local public for ＂ NIMBY＂ conflict event is proposed,and the authors will verify the effectiveness and analyze the sensitivity by using Vensim PLE software. [Result / Conclusion] Taking the Maoming PX event as an example to simulate,the simulation result showed that the model is effective. The effect of the degree of explosive event,government credibility,information transparency and environmental risk perception on internet public opinion and local public were analyzed and then suggestions for controlling the diffusion of internet public opinion and resolving the conflict event were put forward.
出处
《情报杂志》
CSSCI
北大核心
2016年第3期111-117,共7页
Journal of Intelligence
基金
国家社会科学基金项目项目"危险品物流的社会影响力研究"(编号:14BGL139)研究成果之一
关键词
网络舆情
邻避
冲突事件
系统动力学
Internet Public Opinion
NIMBY
Conflict Event
System Dynamics
