摘要
本文采用2001—2013年中国31个省区的面板数据,考察了贸易开放对中国生育率的影响。结果显示,贸易开放对中国的生育率有显著抑制作用。此外,收入水平的提高、女性受教育水平提升以及城镇化的发展都显著的降低了中国生育水平。结果表明,随着中国改革开放的深入、城镇化以及人均收入水平的提升,中国未来的人口生育率还有进一步下降的趋势。在生育率下降、人口红利消散的今天,如何维持中国经济的长期稳定发展是中国政府亟待解决的问题。
Using 2001 - 2013 panel data of 31 provinces in China, the paper examines the effect of trade openness on China＇s total fertility rate. According to the regression results, trade openness has been inducing the fertility decline significantly, in addition, the improvement of income level, female education and the development of urbanization have significantly reduced the fertility in China. The result also show that with the deepening of China＇s opening reform and urbanization and the growth of in- come per capita, the trend of China＇s total fertility rate will decline further in the future. How to maintain the long - term and stable development of China＇s economy when facing the falling fertility and dissipating demographic dividend is a desiderate problem for the Chinese government.
出处
《财经科学》
CSSCI
北大核心
2016年第4期113-122,共10页
Finance & Economics
基金
国家自然科学基金:强制性生育政策
低生育陷阱与中国经济的长期增长:微观机理与实证检验(项目编号:71473118)的资助
关键词
贸易开放度
女性劳动收入
生育率
Trade Openness
Female Labor Income
Fertility Rate
