摘要
文章基于生命周期理论，提出个人（或家庭）生命周期存在一个特定的购房年龄，社会人口也存在一个特定的住房需求密集年龄段，并以2010年第六次全国人口普查数据为基础，对中国城镇住房需求密集年龄人口进行了估算。研究结果表明，中国城镇人口对商品住房的需求存在20～28岁,39-48岁两个需求密集年龄段，并且城镇住房需求密集年龄人口呈现以2014年为拐点急剧转换的倒V形变化趋势。计量分析结果也表明，城镇住房需求密集年龄人口的变化对住房市场产生了深远影响，2014年之前住房密集年龄人口的快速增长带来了住房需求和住房价格的快速增长，2014年之后住房需求密集年龄人口的快速下降也将导致住房需求的快速萎缩和住房价格的急剧调整。
Based on life cycle perspective, this paper puts forward that there is a specific purchase age in the personal(or family) life cycle, and there exists a specific housing demands intensive age among social population. This paper estimates China's urban housing demand-intensive-age population(HDIAP) by using the sixth census data and finds that there are two intensive-ages for commercial housing in China's urban population, which are aged 20-28 and 38-49. Meanwhile, the total HDIAP in 2014 presents a sharp turning point to form inverted 'V' shape trend. The econometric analysis also shows that the change of the HDIAP has a profound influence on the housing market. Before 2014, the rapid growth of the HDIAP had brought the rapid growth of the demand for housing and housing prices. After 2014, the rapid decline of HDIAP would also lead to the rapid contraction of housing demand and housing prices.
出处
《中国人口科学》
CSSCI
北大核心
2016年第1期67-79,127,共13页
Chinese Journal of Population Science
基金
国家社科基金"建立多元化保障性住房供应体系研究"(编号:12CGL093)的阶段性成果
