摘要
本文运用2004～2014年季度数据建立经济增长与保险业发展的非线性动力系统模型，引入保险市场结构与产寿险结构作为控制变量，较为全面、系统的研究和比较了不同控制方案对经济系统的影响。研究发现，我国经济增长与保险业发展存在长期均衡的非线性关系；保险市场集中度降低可以促进经济增长，产寿险结构对经济增长的影响存在差异；在对该经济系统进行最优控制时，需要根据实际情况确定控制偏好，在控制时间、社会福利损失与控制成本之间进行选择；最优控制的结果要求降低保险市场集中度，提高寿险业相对于产险业的规模。
This paper built the economic growth and insurance development＇ s nonlinear dynamic system model based on 2004 - 2014 quarterly data. We used the insurance market structure and nonlife-life insurance structure as control variables to comprehensively and systematically study and compare different control variables＇ impacts on the economic system. The results revealed that there was a long-term nonlinear relation between economic growth and insurance development in China, the decrease of life insurance market concentration would promote economic growth, and the effect of life/nonlife structure to economic growth was different. Therefore, when seeking the optimal control over the economic system, we should decide on the control preference and choose suitable control time, wel- fare loss and control intensity. The result of optimal control experiments required that the insurance market concentration should be decreased and the relative scale of life insurance to nonlife insurance should be increased.
出处
《保险研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2015年第12期3-20,共18页
Insurance Studies
基金
中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目(NKZXB1418)的阶段性研究成果
关键词
保险业市场结构
产寿险结构
经济增长
保险业发展
非线性动态系统
insurance market structure
nonlife-life insurance structure
economic growth
insurance development
nonlinear dynamic system
