摘要
本文基于系统科学理论,采用理论与实证相结合的方法,构建系统动力学模型,并设计了5种方案对西安市2014—2025年的土地综合承载力发展趋势进行了情景模拟分析。研究结果表明,2025年,在5种方案中,协调发展方案的承载力指数最高,趋近于1,达到了高级状态;而经济优先方案的承载力指数尽管超过了0.6,处于较高水平,但在5种方案中则最低。因此,协调发展方案是西安市未来土地可持续利用和城市发展的理想模式,能够较好的满足其未来社会经济各方面可持续发展的实际需求。
This paper attempts to simulate the development status of Xi＇an City from 2014 to 2025 with the method of Systems Dynamics（SD） on the basis of theoretical analysis and empirical analysis. In 2025, the indexes of land comprehensive carrying capacity in coordinate development scheme will approach 1.0 and reach the higher status, while the index of economic priority scheme, which could also exceed 0.6 and arrive at the high level, will be the lowest one in all five schemes. Therefore, during the forecast period the coordinate development scheme will be the ideal way for sustainable land use and urban planning to meet the actual requirements of the future socio-economic sustainable development in Xi＇an city.
出处
《未来与发展》
2016年第1期45-52,共8页
Future and Development
基金
陕西省社会科学基金项目(2015D058)
关键词
土地综合承载力
系统动力学
西安市
Land Comprehensive Carrying Capacity
System Dynamics
Xi＇an City
