摘要
针对额济纳绿洲生态环境脆弱复杂以及资源、环境、人口和发展之间的矛盾关系,运用系统动力学原理,建立了额济纳绿洲土地承载力系统动力学模型;以额济纳2004年统计数据为基础,预测了未来20 a内3种水土开发速率、投入水平以及人口增长速率与3种生活类型(温饱型、小康型和富裕型)组成的9种方案的土地承载力变化;最后,提出了提高土地承载力的若干对策.
Aiming at the fragility and complexity of ecological environment and the contradiction relationships of resources, environment, population and development in Ejina oasis, a dynamic model of land carrying capacity by using system dynamics principle is developed and the changes of land carrying capacity in the future 20 years of 9 scenarios consisted by 3 water and soil resources development rates, investment levels, population growth rates 3 living levels on the basis of the statistic data of Ejina oasis in 2004 are predicted. Finally, countermeasures and ways for enhancing land carrying capacity are put forward.
出处
《北京师范大学学报（自然科学版）》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2006年第6期624-628,共5页
Journal of Beijing Normal University(Natural Science)
基金
国家科技攻关资助项目(20052005BA517A06)
国家自然科学基金重点资助项目(10532030)
北京市科技新星计划资助项目(2006A31)
关键词
额济纳
土地承载力
系统动力学
Ejina oasis
land carrying capacity
system dynamics
