摘要
运用均值—方差方法构建风险规避垄断企业新产品投资模型,得出投资时机、规模与定价决策。同时考虑宏观市场环境不确定性及新产品不确定性,并比较了二者对上述决策的影响。结果表明:企业预测到新产品"成功"的概率较大时会选择"早"投资;宏观市场环境不确定性越小,企业越倾向于"早"投资;新产品不确定性对投资时机的选择没有影响;企业"早"投资和"晚"投资的效用随宏观市场环境不确定性增大而减小,随新产品不确定性增大而增大。
This paper establishes a model of new product investment for a monopoly firm with risk-aversion attitude by the mean-variance theory,and provides investment timing,scale,and pricing strategies. Considering both macro market environment uncertainty and new product uncertainty,it compares the effects of them on the above strategies. Result shows that,the firm will choose ＂earlier＂investment if the probability of success predicted is larger,when macro market environment uncertainty is decreased,＂earlier＂investment is more preferred; new product uncertainty has no effect on investment timing. The utilities of ＂earlier＂investment and＂later＂investment are decreased with macro market environment uncertainty,and increased with new product uncertainty.
出处
《软科学》
CSSCI
北大核心
2016年第1期50-55,共6页
Soft Science
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(71001084
71072128
71371149
71101115
71472146)
高等学校博士学科点专项科研基金项目(20100201120050
20100201110043)
教育部留学回国人员科研启动基金
中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目(国际合作类)(SK2014043)
陕西省自然科学基础研究计划项目(2015JM7379
2014JQ-7041)
关键词
新产品
需求不确定性
风险规避
新产品投资
定价
new products
demand uncertainty
risk aversion
new product investment
pricing
