摘要
利用1998—2014年20场北疆典型寒潮天气过程的高空、地面和数值预报产品资料,对北疆寒潮天气进行了环流分型和区域分型,总结了环流型与冷空气路径、区域类型的对应关系,重点统计了不同季节北疆寒潮爆发前一天内500 hPa脊前北风带、锋区强度、中低空冷空气强度、地面冷高压等特征量的平均值和最大、最小值,并检验欧洲ECMWF数值预报产品在北疆寒潮天气预报中的预报能力,为北疆寒潮精细化预报提供了技术参考。
Base on observation and forecast data of 20 typical cold wave episodes in north Xinjiangduring 1998-2014,cold wave were classified according to the circulation and the influenced area.The corresponding relationship of circulation with cold air path, the regional types was summarized.The paper focused on the statistics of 500 h Pa ridge before the north zone, front intensity,middleand low level cold air intensity,and surface cold high pressure characteristics of average andmaximum,minimum values in north Xinjiang in different seasons before the day that cold waveoutbreak. And the ability that ECMWF forecast of cold wave for north Xinjiang was verified. Atlast,the conclusion provides the technical reference of cold wave forecast in north Xinjiang.
出处
《沙漠与绿洲气象》
2015年第6期11-18,共8页
Desert and Oasis Meteorology
基金
中国沙漠气象科学研究基金(Sqj2014009)
中国气象局预报员专项(CMAYBY2014-078)
关键词
北疆寒潮
环流分型
区域分型
寒潮特征量
ECMWF检验
cold wave in north Xinjiang
cold wave characteristics
ECWMF forecast product inspection
