摘要
通过构建由城乡经济统筹、社会发展统筹和基础设施统筹三方面14个指标组成的基于时序数据的天津市城乡统筹发展评价指标体系，运用主成分分析法求出1985—2012年天津市城乡统筹发展水平得分。在此基础上，运用灰色关联分析法找出影响城乡统筹发展水平的主要因素。结果表明，天津市城乡统筹发展水平总体上呈现出上升的趋势，且近6年来提高显著；教育等公共事业投入、经济发展、基础设施建设和就业结构等因素对该阶段天津市城乡统筹发展影响较大，未来应加大在以上四方面的统筹力度。
Through establishing the 14-index assessment system from 3 aspects of urban-rural economy integration, social development integration and infrastructure integration, the scores of Tianjin＇s urbanrural integrated development levels from 1985 to 2012 are evaluated by Principal Components Analysis based on the time-series data of 28 years. On this basis, the main factors influencing Tianjin＇s urban- rural integrated development are found out by Grey Relational Analysis. The results demonstrate that the levels of urban-rural integrated development for these years are roughly in ascendant trend and has improved significantly in the last six years, investment in education and other public utilities, economic development, infrastructure construction, as well as employment structure are the crucial influencing factors to Tianjin urban-rural integrated development. In the future, the government should intensify the urban-rural integrated policy in above-mentioned 4 aspects.
关键词
城乡统筹发展水平
影响因素
主成分分析
灰色关联分析
天津
urban-rural integrated development level, influencing factors, Principal Component Analysis, Grey Relational Analysis, Tianjin
