摘要
为克服现有公路安全性评价方法难以客观量化评价因子权重这一不足,从道路安全保障度的概念出发,基于已有相关标准规范和安全理论研究成果构建了公路路段安全保障度评价指标体系,利用改进物元可拓模型建立了公路路段安全保障度评价模型。实例分析结果表明,该路段安全保障度等级为"低",且偏向于"很低"等级的程度较大,符合其实际情况。实例中将所建模型与3种常用评价模型进行比较,结果表明其用于公路路段安全保障度评价具有更好的实用性。敏感性分析显示,最大纵坡、平曲线超高和加宽设计指数、路面摩擦系数、交通饱和度、建筑物或植被等侵入率更易影响该路段的安全保障度。
This paper is to propose an index system of evaluating the highway traffic safety warranty grade based on the currendy used relevant standards and safety theories in overcoming this sort of traffic deficiency.From the point of view of the roadway traffic safety,it is not easy to quantify the weights of the evaluation indices for the current highway safety evaluation methods objectively.However,we would like to meet the challenge to set up an evaluation model of such nature by applying the improved matter-element extension model,in which we have developed,on the basis of our study of the classical field theory,the matter-elements for evaluation,the weight determination method and the maximum membership degree principle founded on the traditional matter-element extension theory.In our model,the intended innovative measures should include：（1） try to normalize the classical field and matter-element items for evaluation;（2） define the weights of all the rating indices in a variable weight theory;（3） replace the closeness criteria for the maximum membership degree principle;（4） grade the evaluation objects with the characteristic functions of the class variables.The aforementioned four measures can be expected to reduce the effects of the subjective factors and improve the objective evaluation reliability as to all the involved items to be evaluated.Take the evaluation results of Guangqian road section for example,the evaluation results show mat the safety warranty grade should be categorized to level Ⅲ（low）,and or to level Ⅳ（very low） in general,which shows that the proposed model is consistent with the actual situation of the road.As compared with the three commonly used evaluation models,the application results show that the model we have proposed is more practical.Through the sensitivity analysis,the safety warranty grade of the Guangqian road section is more likely to be affected by the maximum gradient,the design index of horizontal curve superelevation and widening,the friction coef
出处
《安全与环境学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2015年第6期22-29,共8页
Journal of Safety and Environment
基金
重庆市交通运输工程重点实验室基金项目(2011CQJY004)
关键词
安全工程
交通运输
道路安全保障度
改进物元可拓模型
评价指标体系
敏感性分析
safety engineering
traffic ＆ transportation
road safety warranty grade
improved matter-element extension model
evaluation index system
sensitivity analysis
