摘要
为了揭示道路交通事故发生的本质规律,完善预防与治理道路交通事故发生的理论体系,针对全世界交通事故频发、交通安全问题日益突出的现状,以道路交通事故发生机理为研究对象,综述了5种目前国内外典型的道路交通事故发生机理,包括"感知—判断—操作"机理、"流量分布、超速与速度差"机理、"驾驶能力与行车需求"机理、"差错性与突变性"耦合机理、"事件树"机理,并对其进行了评价。基于现状分析,提出了未来道路交通事故发生机理研究的趋势,即探寻道路交通事故影响因素的新颖分类方法,透析道路交通事故影响因素间的耦合关联,寻求导致道路交通事故发生的决定性因素(可量化指标),建立关键决定性因素耦合作用对道路交通安全性影响的系统理论关系模型及定量化研究模型,开展基于人因工程理论的道路交通事故发生机理研究,探索基于事故数据的道路交通事故发生机理研究等。
In order to disclose the essential regularities behind the traffic accidents and enhance the theoretical research system for preventing from and reducing the traffic accidents to the minimum point, the present paper aims to make a systematic exploration and summary of traffic accidents based on the study of the frequency of road traffic accidents and the increasingly traffic safety problems both at home and abroad. The research goals of the paper include （1） The study of the mechanism of the incidence of traffic accidents, the judgment and the actual manipulative measures to deal with the likely accidents while driving; （2） The mechanism of the traffic interactive flow distribution, over-speeding and speed deviation; （3） The mechanism of the drivers＇ competence for the drivers to control the accidents and the actual driving demands of the actual driving tasks; （4） The mechanism of the likeliness between the drivers＇ misbehaviors and the accidental driving mis-operation caused by the judgment gap due to the road traffic system factors and the drivers＇ driving intentions; （5） The mechanism of the accident tree, based on the analysis of the problems and inefficiency in the research into the road traffic accidents in situ and in the future in the traffic accident exploration. The future research trends may include （1） Exploring the novel classification methods of the influential indices that may account for such traffic accidents; （2） An depth-analysis in the coupled interactions between the influential factors and the actual rates of road traffic accidents; （3） Seeking the key and decisive factors （quantified indices） that may account for the traffic accidents; （4） Establishing the theoretical relationship models and quantitative models which can reflect the influence of the coupled interactions of the key and decisive factors on road traffic safety; （5） Conducting researches on the mechanisms of the traffic accidents on the basis of ergonomics; （6） Doing researc
出处
《安全与环境学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2014年第3期14-19,共6页
Journal of Safety and Environment
基金
重庆市交通运输工程重点实验室基金项目(2011CQJY004)
关键词
交通运输安全工程
道路交通事故
机理
现状
趋势
transportation safety engineering
road traffic accident
mechanism
current status
trend
