摘要
针对民航ADS-B广播消息的强实时性特性,提出基于ADS-B广播消息的航迹冲突滚动预警方法;该方法是一种蒙特卡罗仿真方法和当前统计模型相结合的仿真预测方法,利用蒙特卡罗采样的随机性多次仿真,得到一个预测航迹族,空间区域内这些随机航迹段的数量反映未来飞机飞经该区域的概率。该方法可用于意图验证、冲突预警、失速螺旋预警、重着陆预警等诸多方面,以飞机航迹冲突概率为例进行计算,仿真结果验证了该方法有效性。
In consideration of the strong real time properties of ADS-B broadcasting messages in civil aviation,a rotative warning technique based on these messages for flight track conflict is proposed in this paper. It is a simulation prediction technique that combines Monte Carlo simulation and current statistics model. Random multiple simulations that use Monte Carlo sampling produce a predicted flight track family;the quantity of these random flight track segments in a spatial zone represents the probability that the aircrafts may fly through this zone in the future. This technique may be applied to intention confirmation,conflict warning, stalled spiraling warning, and hard landing,etc. This technique is then exemplified by aircraft flight track conflict probability computation and the simulation results confirm the validity of this technique.
出处
《火力与指挥控制》
CSCD
北大核心
2015年第12期119-122,127,共5页
Fire Control & Command Control
