摘要
通过对风电场测风塔近5年风速和周边气象站近40年风速的变化趋势、周期特征分析研究发现：1过去40多年（1972~2013年）黑龙江富裕、山东荣成和内蒙古巴盟3个典型地区年平均风速均呈明显减小的变化趋势;2平均风速的减小,有可能减小风电场可利用小时数,降低总有效功率和发电量;3黑龙江富裕平均风速存在较突出的准14年周期特征,山东荣成存在准16年和准30年周期特征,内蒙古巴盟的准3~4年周期信号比较突出,同时存在准14年和准30年周期特征;4每个典型地区平均风速都存在较明显低频准周期和高频准周期,但不同地区准周期特征不尽相同,各种周期的叠加形成该地区的风速年景。在进行风力发电年度考核时,如能考虑到周期特征将更符合自然的变化特征。文章将气候变化情景模拟成果应用于风能资源开发利用研究,对3个典型区域风电开发中的规划选址、风能评估、风险分析等起到很好的指导作用和科学支撑。
The changes of wind speed and wind energy have been studied using the measured data from the masts（the last 5 years） of wind farm and its surrounding long term climate stations（the last 40years） from China Meteorological Administration. The study found that, 1Annual average wind speed in the past 40 years（1972 ~2013） showed a significant decreasing trend among Fuyu of Heilongjiang province, Rongcheng of Shandong province and Bayannaoer of Inner Mongolia province. 2 The descending of wind speed might cause the reducing of the total wind effective power and power generation. 3Average wind speed showed obvious quasi periodic characteristics, which was 14 years quasi periodic in Fuyu, 16 and 30 years quasi periodic in Rongcheng, 3-4 years quasi periodic in Bayannaoer where 14 and 30 years quasi periodic signal also been found. 4There are showed obviously quasi periodic in each typical area, including the different low-frequency and high-frequency quasi periodic characteristics, which is forming local wind speed changes by times. It would be more in line with the change of nature in the annual assessment of wind power generation when considering cyclophysis. In this study, simulation results of climate changes were applied to the development and utilization of wind resources, which would do support to site planning, wind energy assessment and risk analysis of wind farms.
出处
《可再生能源》
CAS
北大核心
2015年第12期1853-1860,共8页
Renewable Energy Resources
基金
国家自然基金项目(41205114)
关键词
典型地区
风能
情景模拟
周期
特征研究
typical areas
wind energy
scenario simulation
cycle
characteristics
