摘要
笔者以中国沪深两市1997—2012年A股上市公司为研究样本,采用双向归并Tobit模型和相关随机效应Probit模型,考察了地方财政刺激政策对A股上市公司目标资本结构的影响,并探讨了这一影响的作用路径。研究发现,地方财政刺激对资本结构具有显著的正向影响;企业资本结构具有显著的逆周期性;股票市场状况与货币政策变量对资本结构具有显著的负向影响。为保证结论的可靠性,本文采用了两种方式进行稳健性检验,发现前述结论依然成立。这表明扩张性的地方财政政策在中国制度背景下助推了企业的加杠杆行为,形成了一个系统性风险的放大机制。因而今后在制定财政刺激计划时,不仅要关注政策的刺激效用,而且还应考虑政策变化可能带来的风险。
Based on listed companies from 1997 to 2012 in China＇s stock market, this paper employs Tobit Model and Probit Model to examine the influence of local government fiscal policy to listed companies＇ capital structure and how this effect imposed. The study indicates that the local government fiscal policy has significant positive effects; a listed firm＇s capital structure appears to be strongly counter-cyclical; the situa- tion of stock market and monetary policy have prominently negative effects on one firm＇s capital structure. To ensure the reliability of the conclusion, this paper launches two robustness tests and both support the result. It substantially implies that the expansionary fiscal policy encourages firms to impose leverages, and results into a mechanism which increases the systematic risks. Therefore when designing the fiscal stimulation plans, it should consider carefully about both the policy＇s effects and the corresponding risks incurred by the policy change.
出处
《中央财经大学学报》
CSSCI
北大核心
2015年第12期9-21,共13页
Journal of Central University of Finance & Economics
关键词
财政政策
地方财政支出
资本结构
Fiscal policy Local fiscal spending Capital structure
