摘要
该文在对已有文献系统化梳理的基础上,以人口城市化为切入点,聚焦城市化对碳排放的影响机制,以期探索我国低碳城市化发展路径。研究结果发现:1城市化对碳排放的影响主要体现在间接作用机制和调节作用机制两个方面。2间接作用框架下,城市化通过人口从乡村向城镇聚集,而对产业结构、生活方式、空间布局三个方面产生影响,对碳排放产生间接影响。3调节作用框架下,碳排放对人口经济活动的弹性表现在城市化的不同阶段:在城市化发展初期,人口增加所引致的产业结构、生活方式等变化对碳排放的间接影响并不显著,能源效率和规模经济等因素对碳排放的抑制作用也不太明显;而在城市化快速发展阶段,间接驱动作用迅速增强,且明显高于抑制作用,从而导致碳排放迅速增长;在城市化后期阶段,间接驱动作用的影响逐步减弱,抑制作用逐渐增强,碳排放增长速度随之减缓。
By systematically combing the existing literature, this paper focuses on exploring the impact mechanism of urbanization on carbon emissions from the perspective of population urbanization, with the aim to promote the transition of Chinese urbanization development to the green and low-carbon urbanization development road. The results show that： ①The impact mechanism of urbanization on carbon emissions is divided into mediated causal effect mechanism and moderated causal effect mechanism. ②Under the framework of mediated causal effect mechanism, urbanization affects carbon emissions through population gathering in towns which in turn affects the industrial structure, resident lifestyle and spatial distribution. ③Under the framework of moderated causal effect mechanism, the elasticity of carbon emissions on economic activity is different in the different processes of urbanization. In the early stage of urbanization, the mediated causal effect of increasing urban population on industrial structure and lifestyle, which in turn affects carbon emissions, is not obvious. The inhibition effect of energy efficiency improvement and scale economies on carbon emissions is not obvious. In the rapid development stage of urbanization, the mediated causal effect is rapidly increasing, and significantly higher than inhibition effect, thus resulting in the rapid growth of carbon emissions. In the later stages of urbanization, the mediated causal effect begins to weaken and the mediated causal effect begins to gradually improve.
出处
《上海经济研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2015年第10期97-106,共10页
Shanghai Journal of Economics
基金
上海市软科学研究计划重点项目资助(编号:15692101500)
关键词
城市化
碳排放
影响机制
间接影响作用
调节影响作用
Urbanization
carbon emissions
impact mechanism
mediated causal effect
moderated causal effect
