摘要
通过协整检验和状态空间模型等方法,对国际煤炭价格和我国通货膨胀以及结构性通胀的关系进行实证研究。研究结论表明,国际煤炭价格和通货膨胀各变量与八大类价格指数之间存在着协整关系,表明各变量之间有长期均衡关系。国际煤炭价格对工业品出厂价格指数的冲击效应显著地大于对居民消费品价格指数的影响,并且边际效应都呈现正方向的影响,说明国际煤炭价格对生产类价格的影响更为直接,更为有效。国际煤炭价格对八类价格指数的边际影响时刻变化,其波动程度有所不同。国际煤炭价格对食品烟酒娱乐类价格指数影响较小,而对居住和医疗类日常生活价格指数影响次之,对家庭和交通等价格指数影响最大。总体而言,国际煤炭价格对我国结构性通货膨胀有持续性影响。
This paper analyzes the relationship between the international coal price and China＇s inflation and structural inflation by using the co-integration test and State Space Model. The conclusion of the study shows that there is the long- term equilibrium relationship between the international coal price and China＇s inflation. The impact effect of the international coal price on PPI is significantly greater than the effect on CPI, and the influence of marginal effects of the international coal price on the CPI and PPI are positive, which shows the influence of the international coal price of PPI is more direct and effective. The marginal impacts of the international coal price of eight kinds of price index have been changing, but the degrees of volatility are different. The intemational coal price has less effect on the food price index and tobacco ＆alcohol and entertainment price index, and has more effect on living price index and medical care price index, and greater effect on the family equipment price index and transportation and other production price index. Overall, the international coal price has a certain long-time stimulus on the China＇s structural inflation. Then, this paper puts forward the related policy suggestion according to the above research conclusion.
出处
《经济与管理》
CSSCI
2015年第6期57-62,共6页
Economy and Management
基金
世界煤炭协会和神华集团国际合作研究项目重大宏观战略研究课题(SHGF-13-97)
关键词
国际煤炭价格
通货膨胀
状态空间模型
冲击效应
International coal price
China＇s inflation
State space model
Shock effect
