摘要
准确地评估潜在蒸散量的时空变化趋势对新疆水资源合理利用及气候变化下水文变化研究具有重要意义。采用Penman-Monteith公式以及55个气象站的气象资料计算了新疆1961-2013年潜在蒸散量,运用非参数检验以及GIS的空间分析功能,分析了新疆潜在蒸散量的时间、空间变化特征及变化原因。在此基础上,应用基于分形理论的R/S方法对新疆ET0未来的变化趋势进行了预测研究。结果表明:新疆潜在蒸散量总体呈下降趋势,平均递减率为-10.1mm/(10a)。年潜在蒸散量自1983年发生减少性突变,其空间变化特征为南高北低,东高西低,在东南-西北方向上递减,存在显著的地区差异。风速是影响ET0的主要气象因素。未来一段时间ET0仍然保持与过去相一致的变化趋势。
It is essential to accurately estimate the potential evapotranspiration （ET0 ） in arid and semiarid areas where water re‐sources are limited and explored excessively ,which would be greatly helpful for planning the irrigation water supply and understand‐ing the effects of climate change on hydrological processes .Based on the 1961-2013 daily meteorological data from 55 meteorological stations in Xinjiang ,and by using Penmen-Monteith equation ,the reference crop evapotranspiration （ET0 ） was calculated ,the meth‐ods of Mann-Kendall test ,Mann-Whitney test and GIS technology were used to analyze the spatial distribution and temporal changes in ET0 in Xinjiang during 1961-2013 .On these bases ,the future trend of the ET0 is estimated by the resealed range analysis meth‐od .Major results are as follows：the annual value of ET0 variations show a declining tendency -10 .1 mm/（10 a） during the past 53 years .An abrupt change of the annual ET0 happened in 1983 ,there was a marked geographical difference in ET0 ,which decreased from the Southeast to the Northwest ;wind speed has a great impact on the ET0 ,the decline tendency of wind speed appears to be a major cause for the negative trend of the ET0 in the areas .Within a definite period in the future ,the ET0 would keep the same change trend as the past .
出处
《中国农村水利水电》
北大核心
2015年第9期90-94,共5页
China Rural Water and Hydropower
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(41161029)
新疆干旱区湖泊环境与资源重点实验室基金(XJDX0909-2012-08
XJDX0909-2010-04)
