摘要
房地产价格是否进入中央银行的货币政策规则方程对于经济增长和金融稳定有着重要意义。通过构建包括房地产市场和中央银行货币政策规则的新凯恩斯动态随机一般均衡模型,利用贝叶斯方法估计模型参数发现:将房地产价格纳入泰勒规则和麦克勒姆规则的模型能够更好地刻画我国关键宏观经济变量的波动特征和冲击响应特征,这意味着房地产价格影响了我国中央银行制定的基准利率和货币供应量。房地产市场对宏观经济和金融的溢出效应的这一形式,对我国中央银行货币政策调控水平提出了更高的要求。
The question whether housing price have entered monetary policy rule equation is of great significance to economic growth and financial stability. Based on a New-Keysian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model and bayesian estimators, the paperofinds that, models incorporating housing prices into Taylor Rule and McCallum Rule can better characterise the volatility and impulse response feature of key variables of macroeconomics, which implies that housing price has been affecting the benchmark interest rate and money supply made up by China＇s Central Bank. This kind of spillover effects of housing market on macroeconomy and finance proposes higher damands of China＇s Central Bank＇s capability of monetary policy regulation.
出处
《南开经济研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2015年第4期136-152,F0003,共18页
Nankai Economic Studies
基金
国家自然科学基金面上项目“面向金融安全的房地产市场风险识别及预警研究”(项目编号:71373201)资助
关键词
货币政策
房地产价格
新凯恩斯动态随机一般均衡
Monetray Policy
Housing Price
New-Keysian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium
