摘要
从中国省际经济增速差异存在动态变化的实际情况出发,基于1993—2012年面板数据,将全国31个省(市、区)分时段分成快速增长、中速增长与慢速增长三大类型,通过对快速增长地区与慢速增长地区的实证对比分析,探寻省域经济增长的普遍规律及其主要影响因素,并利用Oaxaca-Blinder模型对影响经济增长省际差异的因素进行分解,计算出各因素对差异的贡献率。结果表明:政府政策与市场化进程对经济增长省际差异的影响都很显著,但地区差距的缩小对政府投资的依赖程度过大,伴随投资驱动效应的不断减弱,一旦政策难以为继,落后地区很有可能陷入"梅佐乔诺陷阱"。因而培育落后地区自身发展潜力,深化落后地区市场化改革是缩小地区差距的有效途径。
Different from the traditional grouping way according to spatial distribution when researching the regional disparity of economic growth, starting from the Chinese actual situation about the dynamic change of the gap of provincial economic growth, We divided 31 provinces into three types of rapid growth, medium growth and slow growth in stages during 1993-2012. Then through comparative analysis between fast areas and slow growth areas, we tried to explore the law of provincial economic growth and its main influencing factors. By using Oaxaca-Blinder model we decomposed the factor influencing the provincial disparity of economic growth, and calculated the contribution rate of these factors. The results show that government policy and marketization are the main factors that influence the provincial difference, but the narrow of regional gap is over dependent on government investment. Because its influence on economic grouth continues to be weakened, the backward areas are more likely to fall into ＂Mezzogiomo Trap＂ once the policy is difficult to continue, therefore, it may be the effective way to narrow regional disparity of the backward area by cultivating their own development potential and deepening market reform.
出处
《经济地理》
CSSCI
北大核心
2015年第9期8-15,23,共9页
Economic Geography
基金
国家社会科学基金重点项目(13AGL004)
新疆兵团社会科学基金项目(13YB21)
