摘要
【背景】齿裂大戟原产于北美,是近年来入侵我国的一种检疫性杂草。目前,该杂草已在我国的华北、华东和西南建立种群,并呈扩散蔓延趋势。由于该入侵植物具有极强的繁殖能力,一旦大面积扩散势必造成极大损失,急需通过风险评估明确其未来的扩散趋势,进而制定早期预警措施。【方法】使用MAXNET模型,运用齿裂大戟在原产地和中国的已知分布数据及筛选后的环境变量,结合地理信息系统（Geographic information system,GIS）及其生活史特征和环境适应特性,直观和定量地预测了该原产北美的植物在中国的适生范围,并采用受试者工作曲线（Receiver operator characteristic curve,ROC）分析方法对模型预测结果进行了检验。【结果】齿裂大戟在我国有较为广阔的潜在分布区,其中高风险区主要集中在地处33°~40°N,109°~119°E的北京、天津、河北南部、河南北部、山东中北部、山西南部和陕西西安等地。【结论与意义】结合齿裂大戟在我国的分布现状和传入扩散特性,划定了其在我国潜在的高风险区域,为制定预防和控制入侵植物进一步传入和扩散的早期预警和监测措施提供科学依据。
Background] Euphorbia dentata, an alien weed native to North America, has been introduced to China in the past cen-tury. [Method] By using model and geographic information system （ GIS） , this paper analyzed the environmental variables affecting the distribution of E.dentata on the basis of the biological characteristics, as well as quantitatively predicted its future distribution in China. The prediction was verified by the ROC curve. [Result] The results showed that E.dentata could have a wide potential distri-bution in China, with the main suitable areas located between 33°~40°N and 109°~119°E, i.e., in regions of Beijing, Tianjin, South Hebei, North Henan, Central＆amp;North Shandong, South Shanxi, and Xi′an of Shaanxi. The potential distribution of E.dentata in the world was also detemined using the same method. [Conclusion and significance] Eradicating the present populations in China and monitoring its dispersion may represent the effective measures to prevent and control the potential rampant invasion of this alien weed.
出处
《生物安全学报》
2015年第3期194-200,共7页
Journal of biosafety
基金
本科生拔尖人才培养计划
关键词
齿裂大戟
最大熵模型
入侵植物
生态位
潜在分布区预测
Euphorbia dentata
MAXENT model
invasive species
niche
potential suitable distribution area
