摘要
依据2005—2012年我国31个省份城镇居民食品消费支出和价格数据，运用AIDS模型测算了食品消费支出和价格弹性系数，并基于所得结果讨论了居民食品消费需求的影响因素以及食品消费变动态势。在对各类食品消费的相互关系进行分析的同时，结合膳食营养发展目标对我国城镇居民食品消费进行了评价，分析了食品消费弹性的变化趋势。研究的主要结论是：未来粮食、油脂消费受支出影响有限，消费份额趋于减少；在外用餐、奶及奶制品、水产品消费是今后食品消费主要增长点，消费份额趋于增加；肉禽及制品、蔬果、蛋类消费将保持较快增速。除水产品、奶及奶制品和蛋类自价格弹性较大外，多数食品受自身价格的影响较小。目前食品消费发展方向与未来居民膳食营养目标存在一定偏离。对比不同时期弹性变化可以发现，食品消费支出对多数食品消费的带动作用在减弱，对价格的反应也越来越不明显。
The paper collected urban households＇ food consumption and price data between 2005 and 2012 of 31 provinces in China. The expenditure elasticity and price elasticity were computed using AIDS model. Based on the results, we discussed food consumption trend and the relationships of different foods. Compared with dietary goal, food consumption of urban households was evaluated and the varying trend was analyzed. Some conclusions were made after research ： the influence of cereal and oil consumption was very limited and their share tended to re-duce in future. Outdoor dining, milk and egg consumption would be the main growth points of food consumption. The shares of these foods would increase. Meat, vegetable, fruit and egg consumption would also maintain a compa- rably rapid growth. Price had a small impact to almost of food consumption except aquatic product, milk and egg. There is a certain deviation between food consumption at present and the goal of dietary nutrition. Comparing the e- lasticity of different time, we found that the influence of expenditure was gradually becoming weak. The price response was also becoming insignificant.
出处
《经济问题》
CSSCI
北大核心
2015年第9期81-85,104,共6页
On Economic Problems
基金
现代农业产业技术体系北京市果类蔬菜产业创新团队项目
