摘要
文章通过第三产业主要年份的产值数据来分析张家港市的经济发展模式,运用基于统计软件SPSS 19.0的指数平滑法,预测第三产业未来的发展趋势。研究发现在过去的30多年中,张家港市的第三产业比重保持着持续增长的趋势,并在预测结果中得以体现。第三产业今后将超过第二产业,最终成为产业结构中的主导产业。文章分别从张家港市自身条件,外部环境和宏观经济背景方面对第三产业日后的发展提出了参考性建议。
This article analyzes the economy development mode of Zhangjiagang city through the recent years＇ output data of the third industry. It uses exponential smoothing method to predict the development trend of the third industry. Statistical software SPSS 19.0 carries out the process. The research finds that in the past 30 years, the proportion of the third industry has maintained a sustained growing trend which reflects in the predicted results. The proportion of the third industry will be more than the second industry＇s in the future. The third industry will become the leading industry in the industrial structure finally. This article gives forward suggestions for the development of it in the future in the context of Zhangjiagang＇s local condition, external environment and the macroeconomic respectively.
出处
《江苏商论》
2015年第8期63-66,共4页
Jiangsu Commercial Forum
关键词
第三产业
张家港市
指数平滑法
the third industry
Zhangjiagang
exponential smoothing
