摘要
建立简便有效的洪涝灾害损失评价方法对灾害损失进行及时准确的评估,对于防洪减灾和洪水管理十分必要。洪涝损失一般可借助损失函数来描述。本文从洪涝灾害损失作用机理出发,分析了洪涝损失呈S形曲线,通过数学推导构建了基于双曲正切函数的洪涝损失模型,阐述了函数选择的依据,明确了参数的物理意义和定值方法。将汛期降水量作为自变量引入模型,构建了基于实物量的长江三角洲洪涝损失函数,以规避价值量和损失率函数参数确定的主观性。基于实测数据和数值分析方法,拟合汛期降水量与实物量损失关系曲线,确定参数,保证了关键参数确定的客观性。通过建立受灾面积与总损失的线性回归方程,估算了2009—2012年洪涝损失,实例说明了所建立的损失函数评估洪涝损失的可行性。
It is necessary to establish an effective method to evaluate the flood and water-logging damage loss for the purpose of flood control and mitigation. Loss function is a normal way in flood loss evaluation. In this paper, the feature of a flood loss is analyzed as an S-shaped curve from the hazard effect mechanism, which derives a hyperbolic tangent based loss function with a detail description on choice making, and clarifies the parameters＇ meaning and the valuating process. Taking the Yangtze Delta as an example, the flood loss function is established by incorporating flood season precipitation as a factor into the model. To avoid the uncertainty and subjectivity, the function is formed on the base of the material object. The paper introduces the fitting method and numerical analysis to identify the parameters according to the statistical data. Furthermore, a relative equation is established between the total loss and the agricultural damage area for the prompt assessment. The calculating results both in material and value metrics between 2009 and 2012 indicate good coherence in comparison with the statistic data.
出处
《水利学报》
EI
CSCD
北大核心
2015年第8期883-891,共9页
Journal of Hydraulic Engineering
基金
水利部公益性行业科研专项(201201073)
关键词
洪涝
损失函数
S型曲线
汛期降水量
农业受灾面积
长江三角洲
flood and water-logging
damage function
S-shaped curve
flood season precipitation
agricultural damage area
Yangtze River delta
