摘要
在不满足换道条件下,交织车辆因换道的强制要求,会有选择地放弃跟车转而进行挤车换道。针对此现象,在深入分析交织车辆的跟车换道行为的基础上,从驾驶员的角度出发,选择其跟车换道的影响因素,构建了跟车换道的效用函数,建立了交织车辆跟车换道的二元选择Logit概率模型。基于车辆轨迹获取技术对模型的相关变量进行了调查,采用最大似然估计法对模型进行了标定。选择命中率作为评价指标,采用实例对模型的有效性进行了验证。结果表明,模型能有效地模拟交织车辆的跟车换道行为,精度高达99.0%。
When failing to meet the conditions of changing lanes,the weaving vehicles will be forced to change lanes by squeezing the vehicles into the target lanes.This study analyzed the car-following &lane-changing(CF&LC)behaviors of the weaving vehicles in depth.The influence factors of CF&LC behaviors were identified from the drivers' perspective in order to establish the utility functions of CF&LC behaviors.A probability model of binary choice was also developed in this study.The relevant variables of the models were investigated using the techniques of trajectory capture and calibrated by maximum likelihood estimation method.The effectiveness of the proposed models was verified by a case study.The results show that the proposed model can effectively simulate the CF&LC behaviors of weaving vehicles with aprecision of up to 99.0%.
出处
《交通信息与安全》
2015年第4期43-48,118,共7页
Journal of Transport Information and Safety
关键词
交通工程
交织车辆
跟车换道行为
LOGIT模型
命中率
车辆运行轨迹
traffic engineering
weaving vehicles
car-following &lane-changing behaviors
Logit model
percentage of hits
vehicle trajectory
