摘要
目的分析长沙市肾综合征出血热(Haemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome,HFRS)的时间分布特征与气候因素影响,为HFRS防控决策提供科学依据。方法收集长沙市2004年1月—2014年8月HFRS发病资料,利用SPSS16.0统计分析软件进行时滞相关分析,建立岭回归预测模型。结果长沙市HFRS发病季节性明显,高峰期为11月至次年1月及4—6月,主要气象要素(气温、风速、平均气压、水汽压、最小相对湿度)与HFRS疫情的相关均有统计学意义(P<0.05),相关性在超前1个月达到最高。模型分析显示,岭回归系数k>0.05时,岭回归线趋于平稳,发病数(y)与月平均气压(X1)、平均风速(X2)、平均水汽压(X3)、月平均最低气温(X4)的关系为:y=0.190X1-0.302 X2-0.422 X3+0.357 X4。基于该模型气象因素可对肾综合征出血热解释20.2%的疫情波动。结论气候因素对长沙市HFRS疫情影响明显,根据岭回归模型结合气候因素可对长沙市HFRS疫情进行解释及预警。
Objective To analyze the characteristics and the influence of climatic factors on haemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome （HFRS） in Changsha so as to provide scientific basis for formulating control strategies. Methods Time- delayed correlation analysis was conducted on the incidence data of HFRS in Changsha during January 2004-August 2014 by using SPSS16.0 software,and the prediction model of the ridge regression was also established. Results Incidence of HFRS in Changsha showed obvious seasonal variations, peaking in November to next January and April to June. And the main meteorological elements （temperature, wind speed, mean air pressure, vapor pressure and minimum relative humidity） were significantly associated with the morbidity, and the correlation reached the peak one month ahead. Model analysis showed that the ridge regression line levels got smooth when the ridge regression coefficient k was more than 0.05, and the correlation between incidence （y） and monthly average air pressure （X1）, average wind speed （X2）, average vapor pressure （X3）, monthly mean minimum temperature （X,）can be described as y = 0.190X1-0.302 X2-0.422 X3＋0.357 X4. This model showed that the meteorological factors had a contribution of 20.2% in the fluctuation of the HFRS incidence. Conclusions HFRS incidence in Changsha was obvious affected by elimaticfaetors and the ridge regression model combined with climate factors could elucidate the fluctuation of HFRS incidence and provide early warning of this disease.
出处
《中国热带医学》
CAS
2015年第8期955-957,965,共4页
China Tropical Medicine
关键词
肾综合征出血热
气候因素
相关性分析
岭回归
Haemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome
Climate factors
Correlation analysis
Ridge regression
