摘要
以某公路隧道为研究对象,计算隧道火灾发生后人员逃生概率.根据烟气临界温度建立人员可用安全疏散时间预测模型,并基于Monte Carlo思想,利用Matlab程序,选取三种典型疏散口间距,考虑火灾增长系数和火灾热释放速率的不确定性,计算人员可用安全疏散时间.采用数值模拟方法得到所需疏散时间.通过对比分析,得出当临界温度为60℃时,人员全体逃生概率在64.6％～80.4％之间;当临界温度为100℃时,人员全体逃生概率在97.6％～99.1％之间.
Taking a road tunnel as example, calculated the per- sonnel escape probability in road tunnel fire. Founded the pre- diction model of tASET based on the critical temperature, on the basis of Monte Carlo, using Matlab program, considering three distance of exits and uncertainty of fire growth rate and HRR, tASET was calculated. And then tRSeT was obtained by numerical simulation, through comparison, it was concluded that as the critical temperature was 60 ℃, the total escape probability was 64.6 ~% ~80.4%; as the critical temperature was 100 ℃ ,the to- tal escape probability was 97.6 % 499.1%.
出处
《消防科学与技术》
CAS
北大核心
2015年第8期1017-1020,共4页
Fire Science and Technology
基金
湖北省自然科学基金计划面上项目(2015CFB200)
湖北省教育厅科学研究计划重点项目(D20151207)
关键词
公路隧道
火灾
临界温度
逃生概率
road tunnel
fire
critical temperature
escape prob-ability
