摘要
采用我国2001-2013年间的经济和外贸相关数据,首先根据系统动力学的理论知识,对我国经济和对外贸易的相关性进行分析,构建描述二者相互关系的系统动力学模型,并采用系统动力学软件对已构建的模型进行仿真检验;其次利用主成分分析法对众多外贸因素加以提炼,得出对我国经济发展贡献率最大的两种因素,即进口额和出口额;最后运用回归模型对我国进出口额与经济的相关性进行实证检验。结果发现:我国对外贸易发展与经济增长呈现正相关性,进出口的快速增长大大促进了经济的增长;不过,进出口的不平衡发展也会给经济带来阻碍作用。
The rapid development of Chinese foreign trade promotes the economic growth; This paper uses the Chinese economy and foreign trade data of 2001 - 2013; Firstly, A system dynamics model is established to describe the relationship of economy and foreign trade according to the principle of system dynamics of these association, and Using the system dynamics software tO do the simulation test for the system dynamics model; Secondly, refining the two greatest contribution factors in the numerous factors of foreign trade by the method of principal Component analysis, those which are imports and exports. Finally, we used the regression model to empirically test the correlation of import and export volume and economy of China. The results found ： There is a positive correlation between the development of Chinese foreign trade and economic growth. The rapid growth of import and export would rapidly promote the economic growth; On the other hand, the unbalanced development of import and export will also bring blocking effect for economy.
出处
《经济与管理评论》
2015年第4期11-19,共9页
Review of Economy and Management
基金
国家社会科学基金重点项目"支撑未来中国经济增长的新战略区域研究"(项目编号:14ZDA024)的阶段性成果
关键词
对外贸易
经济增长
系统动力学
仿真
进出口
Foreign trade
Economic growth
System dynamics
Simulation
Import and export
