摘要
目的预测在气候变暖和南水北调运行条件下,未来20年钉螺的入侵发生率与血吸虫病在山东省流行的潜在风险。方法通过对山东省气象情景的预测,采用"再改良Malone血吸虫传播指数模型"计算山东省不同区域的血吸虫传播指数RAMI,确定传播强度等级。结果到2035年,山东省17个地市被分成3个不同的传播强度等级。南部的枣庄和临沂、中部的济南以及东部沿海城市,传播强度中等;中部的济宁、菏泽、泰安、莱芜、淄博、东营、滨州和潍坊,传播强度为低或很低;西部的聊城和德州,传播强度为很低。结论气温影响钉螺越冬存活率以及血吸虫在钉螺体内的生长发育,降雨量及蒸发量影响血吸虫的传播扩散。
Objective To predict the invasion rate of oncomelania hupensis and the epidemic potential risk of schistosomiasis in Shandong Province in the next 20 years with the global warming and the operation of south-tonorth water diversion project. Methods The re-adapted Malone schistosome transmission index model was used to calculate the schistosome transmission index（ RAMI） in different regions and determine the transmission intensity and category by predicting the meteorological scenarios. Results 17 cities in Shandong were divided into 3 categories. The transmission intensity was classified as medium in Zaozhuang and Linyi located in the south,Jinan in the middle and the coastal cities in the eastern areas; as low or very low in Jining,Heze,Taian,Laiwu,Zibo,Dongying,Binzhou,and Weifang located in the middle part of the province and was very low in Liaocheng and Dezhou locate in the west. Conclusions The survivability of oncomelania hupensis in winter and the growth and development of schistosome in oncomelania hupensis were affected by temperature,and the spread of schistosome was affected by precipitation and evaporation.
出处
《环境卫生学杂志》
2015年第3期215-218,225,共5页
JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL HYGIENE
基金
山东省软科学研究项目(2014RKB01543)
关键词
气候变暖
南水北调
血吸虫传播指数
地理分异
风险预测
global warming
south-to-north water diversion project
RAMI
geographic variation
risk prediction
