摘要
以江浙沪入境旅游为例,选择2007-2014年96个月的数据样本,应用空间系统广义矩方法(SP-GMM模型)对入境旅游客流在时空维度上的不均衡性进行实证分析。结果表明,一方面,入境旅游客流在空间分布上具有空间集聚性,即入境旅游存在区域差异;另一方面,入境旅游客流在时间维度上具有明显的季节性特征。造成这种不均衡现象的影响因素包括气候、产业结构、交通条件等。基于该结论,提出入境旅游季节性开发的两个实现路径:第一,遵循"木桶原理",对不同的变量因素进行入境旅游市场潜力开发;第二,实现江浙沪区域旅游资源的空间联动和共享。
With inbound tourism in Jiangsu,Zhejiang and Shanghai as the research subject,the author of this paper selected 96months＇ data from 2007 to 2014and conducted an empirical analysis of the imbalanced spatial and temporal dimensions of inbound tourist flow through SP/GMM model.The results show that,on the one hand,the inbound tourist flow displays spatial agglomeration,i.e.regional difference,and on the other hand,inbound tourist flow has a strong seasonal pattern in the dimension of time.The imbalance is due to climate,industry structure,and traffic conditions.In view of this imbalance,the author proposes two approaches to seasonal inbound tourist development：First,follow the＂bucket theory＂and develop inbound tourist market according to different variables and factors;second,integrate and share tourist resources of Jiangsu,Zhejiang and Shanghai.
出处
《唐山学院学报》
2015年第4期30-33,71,共5页
Journal of Tangshan University
基金
国家社科基金重点项目(12AJY008)
