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空间自相关分析技术在手足口病流行特征分析中的应用 被引量:1

Epidemiological characteristics and spatial analysis of hand-foot-mouth disease in Shitai county from 2008 to 2014
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摘要 目的描述手足口病在石台县的流行状况,探讨手足口病的空间分布特征。方法根据传染病报告信息管理系统石台县2008~2014年手足口病监测数据,采用SPSS 20.0和Arc GIS 10.2软件对手足口病流行特征及空间聚类特点进行分析。结果石台县2008~2014年报告手足口病949例,年均发病率为137.22/10万,5岁以下儿童报告发病数占87.04%,散居儿童和幼托儿童发病占总病例数的92.72%,病例集中于5~7月份。发生聚集性和暴发疫情13起,均发生于幼托机构。EV71感染引起重症病例的风险较大。全局空间自相关分析,手足口病发病率存在空间相关性(Moran's I=0.1895,P〈0.01),局部空间自相关分析,石台县手足口病年平均发病率高值聚集和热点区域均位于仁里镇。结论石台县手足口病的发病水平较高,防控重点人群为5岁以下儿童,关键时期为每年的5-7月份,重点区域为仁里镇。 Objective To describe the distributions of HFMD in Shitai county, and find its spatial distribution charac- teristics. Methods Both morbidity status on HFMD were collected from the disease surveillance information reporting sys- tem, using SPSS20 and ArcGIS10.2 software for data analysis. Results From 2008 to 2014, 949 patients with HFMD were reported in Shitai county, the average annual incidence of HFMD was 137.22/lakh. The male incidence rate was higher than that of female in all age groups and 87.04% of the patients were children less than 5 years old. The scattered living children and childcare children accounted for 92.72% of all cases. The annual incidence peak was from May to July. Thir- teen HFMD cluster cases were reported, and all the cluster events occurred in nurseries and kindergartens. Severe cases would more possibly happen when the patients were infected by enterovirus 71. The global Morang I of prevalence rate of the average annual incidence of HFMD was 0. 1895 ( P 〈 0.01 ) and there was spatial auto - correlation as a whole. The local Morang I index and Getis -Ord Gi statistics both found high positive spatial association and hot spot area, where were loca- ted in the town of Renli. Conclusion The prevalent level of HFMD was higher in Shitai county. Key population was chil- dren under the age of five,key period was from May to July and key area was Renli town.
出处 《安徽预防医学杂志》 2015年第3期167-170,共4页 Anhui Journal of Preventive Medicine
关键词 手足口病 流行特征 空间自相关分析 HFMD Epidemiological characteristics Spatial auto correlation analysis
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