摘要
利用喀什国家基准气候站1961—2013年53 a的平均气温、平均最高气温、平均最低气温、降水量以及日照时数资料,结合1990—2013年的棉花发育期、单位面积产量、＂三桃＂数等资料,采用线性倾向估计计算、检验方法、气候趋势系数和气候倾向率方法,对1961年以来喀什气候变化特征、1990年以来棉花发育期和产量进行分析,探讨了喀什近期气候变化对棉花生产的影响。结果表明：近53 a来,喀什年和各季平均气温、平均最高气温、平均最低气温总体呈线性上升趋势,其年气候倾向率为0.25-0.47℃-10a-1（P-0.01）,春、夏、秋3个季节的倾向率分别为0.24-0.47℃-10a-1（P-0.05）、0.09-0.37℃-10a-1、0.32-0.46℃-10a-1（P-0.01）,其中春、秋季平均最低气温的升温率最大。年降水量呈明显增多趋势,其增幅为6.16 mm·10a^-1,对各季节降水而言,春季降水量呈减少趋势,其气候倾向率为-0.44 mm·10a^-1,夏、秋季降水量呈明显的增多趋势,其增幅分别为2.10 mm·10a^-1、2.23 mm·10a^-1（P-0.05）。日照时数呈增多趋势,其气候倾向率分别为31.3 · h-10a^-1（P-0.05）（年）、16.16 · h-10a^-1（P-0.01）（春）、9.84 · h-10a^-1（P-0.05）（夏）、4.27 · h-10a^-1（P-0.01）（秋）,其中春季日照时数的增幅最大。近53 a来,喀什初霜日呈推后趋势（1.4 · d-10a^-1）、终霜日呈提前趋势（-1.3 · d-10a^-1）,无霜期延长明显（1.0 · d-10a^-1）。近23 a来喀什棉花生长发育期资料统计指出,棉花播种期、出苗期、三真叶期、五真叶期、现蕾期、开花期、裂铃期、吐絮期等各发育期均表现出不同程度的提前趋势,其中现蕾期的提前趋势最明显,为6.6 · d-10a^-1（P-0.01）;棉花停止生长期呈延迟趋势,即延迟幅度为4.2 · d-10a^-1（P-0.01）,发育期的延长对棉花产量和品质的提高都十分有利。棉花＂三桃＂数中,伏前桃数、伏桃数和秋桃数呈增多趋势,其增
This paper analyzed climate change and the responses of cotton growth period and yield to warming climate since 1961 in Kashgar, Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, China. The paper used the methods of tendency, detection and trend coefficient to determine the rate of climate changes of average temperature, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, precipitation and sunshine duration for the period 1961-2013. The study also analyzed cotton growth period, yield amount, and characteristics of pre-summer boll, summer boll and autumn boll for the past 23 years（1990-2013） of ground-truth data in the national reference stations of Kashgar（75°59′E, 39°28′N）. The results showed that average annual temperature, average seasonal temperature, average maximum and average minimum temperature increased significantly in the past 53 years（1961-2013）. The rates of warming in an-nual temperature, spring temperature, summer temperature and autumn temperature were respectively 0.25-0.47 ℃-10a-1（P - 0.01）, 0.24-0.47 ℃-10a-1（P - 0.05）, 0.09-0.37 ℃-10a-1 and 0.32-0.46 ℃-10a-1（P - 0.01）. Among the variables, the trends of increase in average minimum temperature in spring and autumn were of significant. Yearly precipitation apparently increased at a rate of 6.16 mm·10a^-1. Spring precipitation declined at a rate of -0.44 mm·10a^-1, while summer and autumn precipitations increased at rates of 2.10 mm·10a^-1 and 2.23 mm·10a^-1（P 0.05）, respectively. There was significant positive trend in sunshine duration, increasing at a rate of 31.3 · h-10a^-1（P - 0.05） at annual scale, 16.16 · h-10a^-1（P - 0.01） during spring, 9.84 · h-10a^-1（P - 0.05） during summer and 4.27 · h-10a^-1（P - 0.01） during autumn. The highest increase was in spring. The date of the latest frost advanced（-1.3 · d-10a^-1）, the date of the first frost delayed（1.4 · d-10a^-1） and then frost-free period lengthened（1.0 · d-10a^-1） in the past 53 years from 1961 to 2013. Over the past 23 years（1990-2
出处
《中国生态农业学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2015年第7期919-930,共12页
Chinese Journal of Eco-Agriculture
基金
新疆气象局面上课题(ms201523)资助
关键词
喀什
气候变化
棉花
气象因素
发育期
产量
Kashgar
Climate change
Cotton
Climate factor
Growth period
Yield
