摘要
为了降低水下采油树油管挂下放安装风险,采用模糊事故树分析法对其下放安装过程进行风险分析。介绍了油管挂下放安装过程,通过分析连接、定位、锁紧和密封测试4个主要过程,建立了以油管挂安装失效为顶事件的事故树。对事故树进行定量分析,并采用专家综合评判与模糊集理论相结合的方法确定基本事件的失效概率。将专家自然语言转化为模糊数,再去模糊化转化成失效概率。计算顶事件发生的概率,对基本事件进行敏感度分析找出关键事件。风险分析结果表明,分析结果与历史操作经验吻合,验证了采用模糊事故树方法评估油管挂安装风险的可行性。
To reduce the risk of subsea tree tubing hanger installation, fuzzy fault tree analysis method is used for installation risk analysis. The tubing hanger installation process is described. Four main process including connection, position location, locking and sealing test are analyzed. The fault tree, using tubing hanger installa- tion failures as the top event, is established and quantitatively analyzed. The expert assessment and fuzzy set theory are combined to determine the failure probability of basic events. The natural language of experts is converted into fuzzy value, and then defuzzied to obtain failure probability. The top event failure probability is calculated. And the key basic events is identified by means of sensitivity analysis of the basic events. Risk analysis shows that the results of the analysis are consistent to the historical operational experience, verifying the feasibility of fuzzy fault tree method for the tubing hanger installation process risk assessment.
出处
《石油机械》
2015年第7期51-55,共5页
China Petroleum Machinery
基金
国家863计划项目"水下采油树关键技术研究及成套设备研制"(2012AA09A205)
关键词
模糊事故树
水下采油树
油管挂
风险评估
模糊数
敏感度分析
fuzzy fauh tree
subsea tree
tubing banger
risk assessment
fuzzy value
sensitivity analysis
