摘要
针对母线负荷量大面广,易受气象变化影响,且传统天气预报与母线负荷之间存在极为松散的地理对应关系,提出了基于数值天气预报和负荷分类的母线负荷预测。通过获取母线负荷所属行政区域,如县、乡或市辖区的地理位置,提取与母线地理位置紧密对应的高精度数值天气预报信息。通过研究母线负荷与气象因素的相关特性,构建了基于数值天气预报和负荷分类预测的母线负荷预测模型。通过对某省母线负荷进行分析预测,验证了该方法的实用、有效性。
In view of the bus load forecast features such as large amount and wide range,susceptibility to weather changes,plus a very loose geographical correspondence between traditional weather forecast and the bus load,a new bus load forecasting method based on numerical weather prediction and load classification is proposed.By learning about the respective location in the administrative area of bus load,such as counties,townships or municipal districts,the corresponding high precision numerical weather information is extracted.Moreover,by studying the bus load and meteorological factors related features,the bus load forecasting model is built based on load classification.The method has successfully been applied in a provincial bus load forecast.
出处
《电力系统自动化》
EI
CSCD
北大核心
2015年第1期137-140,共4页
Automation of Electric Power Systems
基金
国家高技术研究发展计划(863计划)资助项目(2011AA05A118)
国家电网公司科技项目"面向多级调度的调度计划关键技术研究"~~
关键词
母线负荷预测
数值天气预报
相关性分析
模糊聚类
bus load forecasting
numerical weather prediction
correlation analysis
fuzzy clustering
